Swoopo Bid Expectations

A recent post in the Swoopers forum had someone disappointed that they were consistently getting beat in the final minutes of a Swoopo auction. They mentioned they had around 140 bids remaining and that they would burn through those and be done.

I think much of their frustration resulted from their expectation of being able to win an auction with only a few bids.

How frustrating for them. And for me. I try my hardest to teach good Swoopo principles and in this case…I failed.

I wrote a very long reply in the forum. But for you my dear Swoopers, I spent some time editing. Here is the trimmed up version of my response:

Setting Bid Expectations

You should make sure to bid on items that are priced relative to the amount of bids you have or can afford. My usual rule of thumb is 10%. This means you should be willing to spend up to 10% of the item’s value in bids on that auction.

Say you’re bidding on a Macbook Pro and you have 200 bids. That item is much too large for your amount of bids on hand.

If you wait until your research shows the auction is nearing a close and decide to jump in…you’re playing it too safe. Your 200 bids will not get you to the finish.

This strategy of carefully researching auctions is one I recommend in the Manual, and it’s the most consistent, but it’s also expensive. If you plan to go into an auction in that way, you’d better go with guns ablazin’ and be ready to invest what you need to win.

If You Have Few Bids

If you’re low on bids (or only care to purchase 100 or fewer), you should do either of these:

1. Bid on smaller items like a small bid pack. Or a video game or household item. With a smaller item, you can take the research-based approach I describe above. It’s a cheaper item, so you now have enough bids to do it right.
2. Bid on the large item anyway, but take a BidButler Early approach. With a large item, you can’t wait until the auction is stocked with people, no matter how favorable the stats are and how close the auction is to previous end prices. You simply don’t have the funds to see it through. But you can go into the auction early and hope to catch other bidders off-guard. You just might get a deal like our forum member mentioned: a $600 gift card for 53 cents.

Which Strategy Should You Choose?

The second approach above will be a low percentage play, but might pay off in the end. And of course the top approach is higher percentage, but there’s a lower reward (you don’t win a $600 gift card, you win a video game).

Whichever approach you choose is up to you, but I think this better explains how you should set expectations based on your purse.