Swoopo Bid Expectations
A recent post in the Swoopers forum had someone disappointed that they were consistently getting beat in the final minutes of a Swoopo auction. They mentioned they had around 140 bids remaining and that they would burn through those and be done.
I think much of their frustration resulted from their expectation of being able to win an auction with only a few bids.
How frustrating for them. And for me. I try my hardest to teach good Swoopo principles and in this case…I failed.
I wrote a very long reply in the forum. But for you my dear Swoopers, I spent some time editing. Here is the trimmed up version of my response:
Setting Bid Expectations
You should make sure to bid on items that are priced relative to the amount of bids you have or can afford. My usual rule of thumb is 10%. This means you should be willing to spend up to 10% of the item’s value in bids on that auction.
Say you’re bidding on a Macbook Pro and you have 200 bids. That item is much too large for your amount of bids on hand.
If you wait until your research shows the auction is nearing a close and decide to jump in…you’re playing it too safe. Your 200 bids will not get you to the finish.
This strategy of carefully researching auctions is one I recommend in the Manual, and it’s the most consistent, but it’s also expensive. If you plan to go into an auction in that way, you’d better go with guns ablazin’ and be ready to invest what you need to win.
If You Have Few Bids
If you’re low on bids (or only care to purchase 100 or fewer), you should do either of these:
- Bid on smaller items like a small bid pack. Or a video game or household item. With a smaller item, you can take the research-based approach I describe above. It’s a cheaper item, so you now have enough bids to do it right.
- Bid on the large item anyway, but take a BidButler Early approach. With a large item, you can’t wait until the auction is stocked with people, no matter how favorable the stats are and how close the auction is to previous end prices. You simply don’t have the funds to see it through. But you can go into the auction early and hope to catch other bidders off-guard. You just might get a deal like our forum member mentioned: a $600 gift card for 53 cents.
Which Strategy Should You Choose?
The second approach above will be a low percentage play, but might pay off in the end. And of course the top approach is higher percentage, but there’s a lower reward (you don’t win a $600 gift card, you win a video game).
Whichever approach you choose is up to you, but I think this better explains how you should set expectations based on your purse.
Placeholder Bids 202: Be Not Afraid
In the previous 3 installments of the Placeholder Bids series, I discussed what closed auctions on Swoopo were, how a Placeholder bid can get you into these exclusive auctions and why placeholder bids skew Swoopo Analytics statistics.
In this final installment, I’d like to discuss why those scary auctions smattered with “pinkies” aren’t as scary as they seem.
What Are “Pinkies”
In the Swoopo Strategy Forum, someone lovingly dubbed Swoopo Pros “Pinkies” – named after the color we use in Swoopo Analytics to mark bidders who’ve won several previous auctions. These bidders are the dangerous “Swoopo Pros” and knowing how to avoid them (or be them) is what the Swoopo Manual + Swoopo Analytics is all about.
So Why Shouldn’t I Be Scared?
Sometimes I’ll log into an auction and see that dozens of bidders are participating who are “Pinkies.” But upon further inspection, I realize that many are simply using Placeholder Bids to mark their spot in the auction. So what on the surface seems like a scary auction I should avoid…might actually be a good auction to start bidding in.
Now that you know all there is to know about Placeholder Bids, you’ll be armed to conquer closed Swoopo auctions. If you haven’t yet purchased the Swoopo Manual and started using Swoopo Analytics – get on it!
Placeholder Bids 201: Skewed Win Statistics
In my previous two posts, I discussed what a closed auction is on Swoopo and how Placeholder Bids can help you get access to these exclusive auctions.
Today, I’m going to explain how the strategy of Placeholder Bids has an interesting effect on our Swoopo Analytics statistics…
Let’s Talk Win Percentages
With Swoopo Analytics, we track every single bidder and every single auction. We also know a bidder’s won/lost history and can therefore calculate a winning percentage over the history of their account.
A typical bidder (let’s call her Susan) may have 15 wins and 100 auctions participated in, meaning she has a win percentage of 15%.
This statistic alone isn’t helpful, however, because there are many other factors to consider. I won’t get into detail here, but I do want to explain what this has to do with Placeholder Bids.
The best bidders often use Placeholder Bids with regularity. So Susan has participated in 100 auctions, but let’s say in 40 of those auctions she simply placed a Placeholder Bid and then never returned to participate in the auction. (Maybe the auction remained too competitive, or she were bidding on another auction and didn’t want to be distracted or perhaps she simply had other things to do).
If Susan has 40 auctions in her history that were single bid auctions, then her win percentage would be more accurately described as 15 wins in 60 auctions. Or a win percentage of 25%.
So when considering win percentages, both for yourself and others, don’t forget to factor in Placeholder Bids. In the final post of my Placeholder Bids series, I’ll explain why you shouldn’t run from all those “pinkies” you see in Swoopo auctions.
Placeholder Bids 102: What Are Placeholder Bids?
In my last post, I explained how closed auctions work and why Swoopo implemented them last year. I also explained why they are a mystery by necessity. Today, I’m going to explain what a Placeholder Bid is and how you can use it to get entry to these exclusive, closed auctions.
A Placeholder Bid is simply a single bid cast in an auction. If you see an auction that you think you’d like to bid on, but based on your Swoopo knowledge decide that you should wait, you can cast a single placeholder bid. You can then continue to follow this auction, and if and when Swoopo closes it, you can return and begin bidding when the time is right.
Because the auction is closed, you no longer need to worry about new bidders Swooping in and outbidding you on the auction. And because no new bidders are welcome, the overall competition in that auction will steadily decline as the auction goes on. You’ll ultimately have a much greater chance of winning the auction and in a shorter amount of time.
Put simply, it’s a small fee to allow you access to the best, most profitable auctions.
Now you know the basics of Placeholder Bids and why you should use them. I explain this strategy much more in-depth in the Swoopo Manual. In the next post, I’m going to explain how Placeholder Bids are skewing our Swoopo Analytics statistics and why that matters to you.
Placeholder Bids 101: Closed Auctions
Today is the first part in a 4 part series discussing the strategy known as the Placeholder Bid. Over the next 4 posts, I’m going to discuss what a closed auction is, how a Placeholder Bid can help, how this relates to win percentages and why those scary bidders aren’t that scary.
So What Are Closed Auctions?
Last year Swoopo began “closing” auctions on occasion. When an auction is closed, no new bidders are allowed to participate for the remainder of the auction. This means that the competition in a closed auction is only those people who have already bid in that auction at least once.
It’s hard to say for sure why Swoopo began closing auctions, but most Swoopers would agree they were trying to improve the auction experience. Some auctions stretched far too long and involved too many bidders. The press and others who don’t understand Swoopo would pounce on these skewed auction results and use them as an example of why Swoopo is a bad deal.
Closing auctions allows Swoopo to ensure that it will end in a reasonable amount of time, that the winner will get a good bargain and that those who’ve spent bids already are rewarded with a greater chance of winning.
Closing Is A Mystery
Swoopo doesn’t reveal if and when an auction will be closed. This mystery around closed auctions can sometimes be frustrating to bidders, but it’s necessary. You see, if bidders knew when an auction was going to close, it would have opposite the desired effect. Bidders would flood into the auction hoping to get in before it closed (much like a dance club 30 minutes before last call).
This would be true regardless of whether they closed auctions based on time, bids, competition or any other metric. If Swoopo decided to close auctions based on a metric that other bidders could measure and track, it would result in too much competition and it would defeat the purpose of the closed auction.
Therefore, Swoopo closes auctions arbitrarily. Or if they do have an algorithm in place for when an auction closes, I haven’t been able to crack it. I also haven’t read anyone else who has learned with any certainty when an auction will close.
If you can’t predict closed auctions, can you still use them to your advantage to win more Swoopo Auctions? The answer, of course, is yes.
In the next post (Placeholder Bids 102) I’m going to explain how you can use Placeholder Bids to get access to closed auctions and win more auctions.
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Swoopo Rival MadBids.com Raises $6 Million
Atomico Ventures, an investment group started by Skype cofounders Niklas Zennstrom and Janus Friis, has invested £4 million, or more than $6 million, in a first round of institutional funding for pay-to-bid auction site MadBid.com. As with sites such as Swoopo and Fluttero, which have been growing in popularity, MadBid.com is part of a move to bring the feel of a Las Vegas casino to e-commerce.
Swoopo on Multiple Devices
A Swoopo Manual owner noticed something about the Swoopo system that bears mentioning. I’ll let him tell the tale:
Hi Matt,
Thanks so much for the information, which is very helpful. I’ve encountered one weird problem twice when bidding on an auction from both my laptop and my iPhone at the same time. Attached please see a screenshot of the weird error message. “Sorry – Swoopo has had a problem. We’re letting our techies know right now, who’ll work on getting this fixed”. At this point, I couldn’t even log on to my account or purchase any bids.
Is this because I bid from two different IPs? The reason I’m use both laptop and iPhone is that sometimes our wireless network connection is not very stable. Would this be a trigger that Swoopo blocks my account temporarily for a review or something? Have any other members ever got this error message? Please let me know your thoughts on this.
Thanks so much,
[name redacted]
I tried to replicate this user’s experience but wasn’t able to. However, I think it might not cause problems unless you’re casting bids from one or both devices. It’s also unclear at this point if Swoopo’s system genuinely has technical issues with multiple sign-ins or if they’re preventing them intentionally in a passive agressive manner.
If you’re bidding on Swoopo and need to switch computers, or if you have a secondary device you’re using to track other auctions, I’d suggest you sign in to only one at a time to avoid any possible IP address conflicts.
Note: This advice pertains only to signing into Swoopo’s website. This does not affect your ability to sign-in or use Swoopo Analytics.
If you have any more information on this issue, let us hear about it in the comments.
Update (5.17.10): This same user writes in again to note that this is not an issue of IP address conflict. Swoopo will block simultaneous log-ins from bidding even on the same device. Just stick to a single log-in and you’ll be fine!
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Thoughts on Swoopo Changes from a Winner
I got an email from Nige, who’s a valuable member of our forum. Nige has won 6 of the 8 Swoopo auctions he’s participated in…so his win percentage is great. He’s also been on Swoopo since fall of 2009, so obviously he’s not a “Swoopo Pro.” He just plays and wins when he has time and when he sees a great auction to jump into. This should ring true for most of our Swoopo bidders who just want to win a few auctions. Nige writes:
Can i just say i’m disappointed reading on the forum that so many people seem to have forgotten all your advice on how to win and have been relying on [Swoop It Now]…now they think it’s all over.
I have had a good time and they are all missing out. [I won an] LG plasma last week for £3.07 + 124 free bids. I have started passing my knowledge on to 2 family members, who now have had some good wins without having the [Swoopo Analytics] tool to help. [They're bidding] blind so to speak.
Cheers Nige
Nige is of course referring to the recent Swoopo changes. What he meant was that those users who are complaining that Swoop It Now no longer allows 100% discounts should reconsider their complaints. Swoopo didn’t have Swoop It Now until fall of 2009, so this is a relatively new tool for the Swoopo bidder. What the changes do is democratize the bidding a bit more. Swoopo Pros can no longer dominate the auction and rely on Swoop It Now as a backstop. This means more opportunity for more bidders and in Nige’s case – more auction wins.
New Data on Swoopo Changes
There have been a few changes at Swoopo over the past few weeks. These were controversial changes for our members in the forum, who were torn about whether or not the changes were good for users.
I waited to make up my mind until I had data firmly in hand about what effect it would have. And thankfully, my data mastermind Jason was able to get me stats quickly.
Here is the average savings on Swoopo over the first 10 weeks of 2010.
So it would appear that the changes are good for users on Swoopo. Now, the techniques of the Swoopo pro will definitely change because they can no longer heavily rely on Swoop It Now to save them from a big loss. It’s also made it easier for new bidders to jump in and start winning auctions.
With the shift from Swoopo Pros to every bidder on the site, hopefully Swoopo can continue to improve their customer satisfaction and keep bidders coming back again and again.
There have also been concerned voiced that Swoopo’s traffic is down. Here’s a glimpse at the number of closed auctions by week:
It should be noted, however, that their current traffic levels are similar to those about 5-6 months ago. They’re not growing at this point, but it’s not unprecedented for them to have this many finished auctions per week.
It’ll be interesting to see what they tweak in the model going forward and how it affects everyone in the forums and at home who’re bidding and winning on Swoopo.
Two Major Swoopo Changes
Swoopo has made two fairly large changes to the way auctions work on the site. The first applies to the way time is added to the clock after a BidButler Battle. The second deals with how used bids are applied to the Swoop It Now price.
I’m going to let Swoopo’s words take the lead here in explaining these changes:
BidButler Battle Change
All auctions will count down from 24 hours with no time added to the counter for bids placed before the timer has reached 2 minutes. Once the timer has reached below 2 minutes the counter will extend to a maximum of 20 seconds per bid placed and will not increase the timer beyond 2 minutes regardless of how many bids are placed. This means that once an auction has gone below 2 minutes, further bids placed will never increase the counter over 2 minutes.
Swoop It Now Change
Your Swoop it Now price will vary according to the percentage discount rate that is set on each auction, purchased bids will reduce the Swoop it Now price by 60c for each bid placed until the maximum discount for the auction has been reached.
The Swoop it Now price is only reduced by bidding with ‘Compensation Bids’ or ‘Purchased Bids’ obtained using the ‘Buy Bids’ section of your account. Bid bundles attached to an auctioned item, ‘FreeBids’, auctioned bid bundles or bids placed by telephone do not reduce the Swoop it Now price.
What Do These Changes Mean?
I bolded the important phrase in the Swoop It Now change. That is, there is now a maximum Swoop It Now discount for many items. So you can’t get items for 100% off regardless of how many bids you place.
At face value, this change may seem to be a negative for Swoopo bidders, but I don’t think it was meant that way. Having a Swoop It Now discount of 100% had unintended consequences for Swoopo auctions. The Swoopo Pros were able to come into an auction with a ton of bids and use BidButler with abandon. Now, they cannot bully an auction and win. They’ll be forced to use more finesse and fewer bids.
The BidButler Battle change should result in more exciting auctions for everyone involved, because you will no longer see the auction clock soar to 15 or 20 minutes after a Battle. Unfortunately, as someone in the forums pointed out, this makes bathroom trips and food breaks more difficult. However, since the auctions won’t last as long…this may not become an issue.
Will I Get Better Discounts?
I can’t say yet how these changes will affect the discounts on Swoopo, but I’m going to start evaluating the data and update soon with an answer.
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